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CLASSACT NEWS

  • April 12, 2024 11:46 AM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    By Jacki Swearingen and Vivian Lewis

    Edited by Jim Harbison, Ryan O’Connell and Marilyn Go


    With each election in recent years Florida has turned redder. In 2018 its voters elected one of the nation’s most conservative governors. However, this November’s outcome is a little less certain because of a recent decision by the Florida Supreme Court that allows a measure to ensure reproductive rights to be on the ballot this fall.

    While President Joe Biden is still unlikely to garner Florida’s 30 electoral votes, a surge in voters determined to overturn one of the nation’s strictest abortion bans could benefit Democratic candidates further down the ballot. Although voter registrations for Democrats now trail those of Republicans by four percent, Democrats hope that they can convince the growing number of independents to vote for their candidates this November. Nonetheless, Democrats still face the possibility of reduced turnout because of strict voting laws Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Florida legislature put in place over the last three years.

    Demographic Changes

    Just as in Georgia and Arizona, demographic changes in Florida have been accompanied by increased calls from Republicans to stamp out voter fraud. The 2020 U.S Census showed that among Florida’s population of 22 million residents, non-Hispanic white residents decreased to 51 percent from 58 percent in 2010. Hispanics, the fastest growing sector, grew to 27 percent from 22 percent ten years earlier. Floridians who are non-Hispanic African Americans decreased to 14.5 percent from 15.2 percent, and Asian-Americans increased to 3 percent from 2.4 percent. 

    Voter registration trends show that Florida is not easily pigeonholed into a red or blue niche, despite the outcomes of recent elections. More than one-third of the state’s registered voters are now non-white. The largest segment of Latinos remains Cuban-Americans who have overwhelmingly voted Republican since the first émigrés arrived in Miami in the 1960s. But Puerto Ricans, the second largest group, are more likely to vote Democratic. Indeed, the majority of Florida’s Hispanics are now registered as Democrats or independents, according to the James Madison Institute.

    More people aged 60 to 69 moved to Florida than any other age cohort over the last decade. However, those aged 18 to 53 now outnumber Boomers in Florida. More and more of these younger voters are registering as “No Party Affiliation,” which helps to make independents the fastest growing group of Florida voters. Unaffiliated voters constitute 27 percent of registered voters while Republicans make up 37 percent and Democrats 33 percent.

    Florida had some of the nation’s closest election outcomes in 2018 – a governor’s race DeSantis won by only 0.4 percent and a Senate race fellow Republican Rick Scott won by a mere 0.12 percent. However, the Covid pandemic contributed to a surge in Republican voters when DeSantis’s stand against lockdowns and other restrictions drew supporters from across the country. As DeSantis moved Florida further to the right on issues ranging from abortion to higher education, he also helped to bring into the GOP some long-time residents, particularly in North Florida who had regularly voted Democratic

    Voter Suppression

    Anxiety about the fragility of Republican victories as well as hopes of securing his party’s presidential nomination may have led Gov. Ron DeSantis to introduce strict voting control measures in 2021, which the Republican-led legislature speedily enacted. Law SB 90 limits where drop boxes for ballots can be placed, and it requires that the boxes be staffed during hours of operation. The law also restricts who can drop off a ballot for someone else, limiting this role to family members and caregivers, a change that voting rights advocates say places burdens on the disabled and seniors. Voters are also required to provide photo ID, a demand that the late Rep. John Lewis once likened to “a new poll tax.”

    DeSantis and others claimed that they were tightening voting laws to combat voting fraud. However, a 2023 Brookings Institution report concluded:

    “In Florida, there were nine cases of election fraud between the 2020 and 2022 elections but many of those involved individuals who were confused over whether or not they had the right to vote.”

    Despite lack of evidence of any significant voter fraud, DeSantis signed a law in April 2022 that established a new state security office to investigate claims of voter fraud and arrest those charged with it. The new “election police force” ended up arresting only about 20 people in 2022 for casting illegal ballots. Nearly all those accused were shown to lack criminal intent and their cases were eventually dropped.

    These arrests stirred fears in some voters that they might be apprehended for voting in error. Many of these citizens were former felons whose right to vote was restored in 2018 by an amendment to the Florida Constitution that 65 percent of voters approved. Nonetheless, DeSantis and the legislature have undermined the amendment by enacting a law that prohibits former felons from regaining their right to vote unless they have paid off fines imposed by the courts as part of their conviction. 

    The Brennan Center and other voting rights groups challenged this law as unconstitutional, but the US Eleventh Circuit Court has allowed it to remain in place. In the 2024 election cycle an estimated 935,000 Floridians who have completed their sentences but not paid their fines will be unable to vote, according to the Sentencing Project.

    Redistricting

    DeSantis and the Florida legislature have also drawn fire for enacting a 2022 redistricting map for Congressional districts that voting and civil rights advocacy groups say is racially discriminatory. The reconfigured maps, they argued after the 2022 election, were designed to ensure the defeat of three-term Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat, as well as to dilute the power of Black voters in other districts by moving many of them into overwhelmingly white and conservative districts. Their challenge wended its way through the courts until February of this year, when the Florida Supreme Court issued a one-sentence order saying that it would not speed up consideration of the case in time for the 2024 election. The contested maps will remain in place.

    Voter Registration Obstacles

    Law SB 7050, which allowed DeSantis to run for president without having to resign as governor, also builds on the changes to Florida election law enacted in 2021. The latest law imposes stringent new requirements on third-party voter registration organizations and quintuples the maximum fines these groups can incur. The measure bars non-citizens from handling or collecting voter applications as part of an effort by a third-party group to register voters. The new restraints have drawn the ire of Hispanic and Black voter advocacy groups, which argued that non-white voters often rely on their organizations to help them register.

    Increasing the obstacles to mail-in voting, the new law mandates that voters can pick up a mail-in ballot only if they are unable to vote in person at an early voting location or at their assigned polling place on Election Day. Only family members can now request a mail-in ballot on behalf of a voter. 

    Finally, critics of SB 7050 maintain that the new law will cause more registered voters to be purged from the rolls. Election officials can decide to remove a voter based on any “official” source rather than relying solely on ID sources specified in existing law. The new law also accelerates the process of removing voters from the rolls. 

    Outraged by these new rules, the NAACP, the League of Women Voters, the ACLU and other voting advocacy groups filed two separate lawsuits. The League of Women Voters in Florida said in a statement released the day DeSantis signed the bill:

    “The law, Senate Bill 7050, directly targets and drastically restricts the ability of nonpartisan civic engagement organizations, like the League of Women Voters of Florida, to engage with voters, violating their right to freedom of speech and association.”

    On March 1 Obama-appointed Chief US District Judge Mark E. Walker struck down the provision in the law that prevents non-citizens from collecting or handling voter registration applications on behalf of third-party organizations. Judge Walker ruled that the prohibition violates the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. However, Judge Walker’s decision only prohibits Florida’ secretary of state from enforcing that part of the law; he did not prevent the state’s attorney general from applying it. A second trial is now underway in Tallahassee before Judge Walker in which voting rights organizations seek to extend that prohibition on enforcement to the state attorney general as well.

    Voter registration advocates who argue that SB 7050’s restrictions and penalties have already depressed 2024 voter registration drives continue to face challenges in overturning the measure. After Judge Walker’s ruling, Florida officials appealed to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Tallahassee. That case is still pending.

    Abortion Rights

    In recent weeks the Supreme Court judges, all appointed by Republican governors, have played a pivotal role in the fight over abortion rights. The Florida State legislature passed several bills in 2023 that affect reproductive freedom, including the Heartbeat Protection Act that restricts access to abortion after six weeks’ gestation. The controversial legislation prompted a grassroots effort to mount a ballot initiative to amend the constitution, which garnered almost a million signatures. Proposed Amendment 4 to the Florida State constitution would preserve the right to abortion until 24 weeks. The Florida Supreme Court allowed the six-week ban to go into effect and approved the final language of the ballot initiative on April 1.

    For the amendment to become part of the constitution, 60% of voters must approve it. Backers of the proposed amendment include Floridians Protecting Freedom, Planned Parenthood, League of Women Voters Florida and  the SEIU (Service Employees International Union). Florida Voice for the Unborn and Florida Council of Catholic Bishops are among opponents to the proposal. Of note, this amendment may not settle the issue as Florida Supreme Court justices have signaled a willingness to separately consider  the issue of fetal rights.Down-ballot primaries in August will also provide an opportunity for voters to learn the national and state candidates’ positions on a host of issues affecting reproductive freedom, including access to gender-affirming care, bathrooms and in vitro fertilization. 

    Important Down Ballot Races

    While the presidential election will be at the forefront this November, Florida has a number of down ballot races that could also affect the nation as well. Democrats will select a candidate in the August 20th Florida primary to challenge Republican Rick Scott, the former governor who was elected to the Senate in 2018. Scott is regarded as one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents in this election cycle in part because of his stance on Social Security, Medicare and abortion. Twenty-eight House seats will also be up for grabs, including a new one awarded to Florida after the 2020 Census. Finally, Floridians will have the chance to vote on Amendment 3 to the state constitution, which would legalize the use of marijuana for adults 21 and older.

    Get Out the Vote

    What role can you play? Take part in this election by registering voters, phone banking and canvassing. Sign up as a poll worker. Help cure mail-in ballots to prevent a ballot from being discarded because of an error that could easily be fixed.

    Florida lawyers can lend their skills to organizations like Florida Election Protection Coalition that aids voters who find their right to vote challenged at the polls.  Lawyers can also help assess accessibility at polls before voting occurs.

    These organizations are also playing an active part in working for free and fair elections in Florida:

    League of Women Voters of Florida “registers, empowers, and educates voters” as well as advocates for fair voting laws.

    Common Cause Florida advocates for fair voting laws and helps voters with individual questions. Both Common Cause and America Votes helped cure Florida mail-in ballots in the 2020 election.

    Black Voters Matter works in Florida and 24 other states to register voters and get them to the polls. Their “We Fight Back” bus tour is headed to Florida May 16 to May 20. 

    Movement Voter Fund helps support Florida voter organizations that focus on Latinos. 

    Equality Florida focuses on the LGBTQ community to register, educate, and transport voters to the polls.

    The Andrew Goodman Foundation seeks to increase voter registration among college students and inspire them to get out the vote.

    The Florida Justice Center helps former felons regain their right to vote.


  • April 05, 2024 1:39 PM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    We can't believe it's been ten years! Take a look back at this fabulous video created by Rick Brotman '73, which highlights some of the projects ClassACT HR73 has created, organizations we've supported, and most importantly, people we've worked with during the ten years since our inception. 

    10 Year Anniversary Video

    CLICK to watch!

    The ClassACTivism Timeline:

    Accompanying the video is a detailed timeline our milestones from the last decade.

    CLICK for timeline!

  • April 03, 2024 7:39 PM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    Beyond the Mission Statement... Financial and Marketing Startup Overview with Martha Stone-Martin

    April 24, 2024, 7:00 PM - 7:45 PM

    Register here


    You are ready to move beyond the idea and the planning meetings for a new nonprofit. In this webinar, we will highlight key next steps, best practices and resources for launching your nonprofit. 

    Martha Stone-Martin is VP of Marketing and Administration for Charles River CFO (CRCFO). CRCFO provides outsourced CFO, accounting and HR services to nonprofits, biotech and technology firms. She has over 30 years of experiencing developing web presences for small firms.

  • April 02, 2024 7:02 PM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    Please join us for the first Environmental/Climate Change Workgroup’s “Learn at Lunch” series of seminars.  Led by Sharon Tisher ‘73, this informal discussion that will focus on developments in climate science, U.S. policy, and international policy as they unfolded in 2023. 


    In order to have a lively interaction, Sharon would like you to:

    1. Skim the headlines in the new 2023 section of her work,  A Climate Chronology.

    2. Please choose any two entries that are of interest to you, particularly as they relate to each other. 

    3. Sharon hopes that some of you can be prepared to share what interests you about them, and if possible connect to the overriding issues the chronology raises: how we have arrived at where we are now, and what our future will look like. You are not expected to explore the cited resources, but of course may if you wish.

    In addition to using the chronology to focus this discussion, Sharon would very much appreciate your feedback and suggestions for improvement, either during the hour or afterwards. You can contact her at sharon.tisher@maine.edu.

    Click here for the full climate chronology!
  • March 13, 2024 11:59 AM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    Written by Marilyn Go (voting) and Vivian Lewis (reproductive freedom);

    Edited by Jim Harbison and Jacki Swearingen

    Although frequently described as a bellwether state, Michigan had also held the dubious reputation of being one of the most gerrymandered states in the country.[1] However, since 2018, Michigan has been in the forefront of protecting voter rights, as well as reproductive freedom. As discussed below, after voters established an independent redistricting commission, Michigan joined three other states in attempting to end partisan gerrymandering and create competitive elections with the drawing of fair maps.  

    Demographics. Michigan has experienced slow growth since its heyday as the automotive capital of the United States after World War II. After the 2010 Census reported that the state population had decreased from the prior Census, Michigan 's population then grew by less than 2% the following decade. With a population of 10,077,331, as reported in the 2020 Census, Michigan's rank dropped from eighth to tenth most populous state in the country. The population of Michigan has been predominantly Non-Hispanic White, at 76.67%, but the number and percentage of this group has been declining the past few decades. In 2022, the percentage of NH Whites was 74%., while the percentage of Blacks was 14.1%, Hispanic 5.7%, and Asians 3.5%. 

    However, Census classifications may be too general to capture the diversity within certain groups. Michigan is home to an estimated 400,000 to 490,000 Arabs, a widely varying estimate since Arabs are not separately counted by the Census Bureau. Arab voters are concentrated in major cities and have a voice in Michigan politics.  In 2018, Rashida Tlaib, from the Detroit area, became the first Palestinian American elected to Congress and in 2021, voters in Dearborn, which is over 40% Arab, elected their first Arab (Lebanese American) mayor. In Michigan’s recent Presidential primary election, over 100,000 voters selected "Uncommitted" to express opposition to President Biden's handling of the Gaza conflict.

    Independent Redistricting Commission.  In 2018, Michigan voters passed, with over 61% of the vote, a ballot initiative approving a constitutional amendment establishing an independent redistricting commission to redraw congressional and state legislative districts. The 13-member Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting (MICR) Commission that was created consists of four Democrats, four Republicans and five independents randomly selected from 9,300 voters who had applied.[2] 

    After completion of the 2020 United States Census, the MICR released draft-proposed Congressional maps in December 2021, which the MICR approved with a vote of 8 to 5 and, later, added approved state legislative maps. The Congressional maps drawn by the MICR were hailed by many as being fair, creating more competition, and no longer heavily favoring Republicans. The Republicans, who had controlled redistricting after the 2010 Census, had previously drawn maps with "impregnable majorities”in the Legislature. Michigan is one of four states to create a truly nonpartisan independent commission to draw Congressional maps in 2022. California, Arizona, and Colorado are the others. 

    Federal Court Challenge to Maps Drawn. However, shortly after release of the maps, a group of Black Michigan voters filed a federal lawsuit in 2022 claiming that the Congressional maps violated both the U.S. Constitution and the Voting Rights Act. The plaintiffs asserted that  various legislative districts in and around Detroit were racial gerrymanders and diluted Black voting strength by eliminating or greatly diminishing the majority-minority districts there.  

    On December 21, 2023, the three-judge court that was convened to hear the case agreed with the plaintiffs. The Court found that the record "overwhelmingly" showed that the MICR drew the "plaintiffs’ districts predominantly on the basis of race" in a manner which violated the plaintiffs' rights under the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution. The three-judge court similarly found in a related case that maps for more than a dozen Michigan state House and Senate districts around metro Detroit violated the U.S. Constitution by splitting Detroit into districts combined with whiter suburbs. The court enjoined the use of the districts as drawn and directed that new maps be drawn, released for public comment, and submitted to the Court for review by March 1, 2024.[3] The state's application for stay was denied by the Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh on January 22, 2024. 

    New maps have been submitted in accordance with the schedule set and are now before the court and its experts for review.   

    The need to have maps redrawn is troubling. As recounted in the December 21 decision, the Commissioners simply failed to understand the requirements of the Voting Rights Act. That  should not have happened and could have easily been avoided.In addition, two of the Commissioners resigned prior to completion of their duties, because they lived outside of the state; this is a straightforward matter that should have been disclosed and uncovered prior to the time they assumed their positions. 

    Michigan’s experience shows how an independent nonpartisan redistricting commission can end partisan gerrymandering and create competitive electoral races by drawing fair maps.  However, the pending lawsuits over redistricting illustrate the complexities of redistricting and the many different interests that must be considered in drawing maps. Concerns over partisan gerrymandering cannot supersede legal obligations under the Voting Rights Act, which ensures that historically politically disadvantaged groups have representation. 

    Other Voting Legislation. This past November, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed into law a series of election bills to increase voter participation and provide for broader access. One measure to expand voter registration included expansion of automatic voter registration to incarcerated people after their release. Michigan had already previously allowed people with felony convictions to regain their voting rights once they're out of prison.

    The state legislature also passed bills designed to prevent "chaos," particularly in the event of disputed elections. Among other things, these laws criminalize poll worker intimidation, regulate political ads that use artificial intelligence and tighten the election certification process that former President Trump tried to disrupt following his 2020 election loss.

    Political Landscape of Michigan. Michigan is considered a competitive battleground state in Presidential elections.  The Democratic Presidential candidate has, since 1992, prevailed in Michigan, except in 2016 when former President Trump won with a small margin of 11,000.  Although President Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by a larger margin, he prevailed by making inroads in the suburbs, adding to his advantage in the cities, which are traditional Democratic strongholds.

    As a result of a less than two percent increase in population since the 2010 census, as compared to the average 8% increase nationwide, Michigan lost one seat in Congress and will now have 13 Representatives. This was the fifth consecutive time that Michigan lost a House seat following a Census, a change accompanying the shrinkage of the automotive industry there and decentralization in the manufacture of automotive accessories and parts.

    In 2022, voters elected seven Democrats and six Republicans to the U.S. House of Representatives. However, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) is now running for the Senate seat vacated by Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat who is retiring. Until redistricting maps are finalized, it is not yet clear which Representatives are running for re-election in what districts. 

    Until the use of the newly drawn maps in 2022, the Michigan state legislature was dominated by Republicans who were in control for over a decade and effectively maintained control through redistricting.  Like the prior Congressional map drawn before creation of the MICR, the state legislative maps combined urban areas, which tended to vote Democratic, with surrounding suburbs, which tended to be more Republican.  The 2022 electoral districts, which were based on maps drawn following  criteria in the 2018 amendment to the State Constitution, the number of state Representatives who were Democrats increased from 53 to 56, while the number of Republican Representatives dropped from 56 to 54.  Due to unfilled vacancies resulting from retirement or death, the number of representatives is currently tied at 54 to 54.  The Democrats currently hold a small majority in the state Senate.

    Reproductive Freedom.  Reproductive freedom has been a potent issue in Michigan where voters approved a state constitutional amendment to ensure abortion rights in 2022.  The amendment included all matters related to pregnancy, including, but not limited to, pregnancy, abortion care, contraception, and infertility.  Governor Whitmer, whose support of the amendment helped her win re-election, subsequently signed a series of legislation protecting reproductive freedom, including legislation that repeals a law requiring women to have a separate insurance rider to pay for abortion, as well as laws that imposed onerous and unnecessary non-medical requirements on abortion clinics designed to force them to close, raising costs for patients, and restricting access to abortion.  She has also issued an executive order protecting Michigan healthcare workers from extradition for providing IVF services or pregnancy terminations.

    Saying voting rights are “how we secure reprod­uctive rights,” Whitmer noted that some in Congress favor a national abortion ban and urged voters to stay engaged for the upcoming election. There is a congressional proposal, the Life at Conception Act , with 125 cosponsors that would ban nearly all abortions. Although IVF is not mentioned, the proposed legislation uses an argument similar to that of the Alabama Supreme Court, which conferred personhood on frozen embryos. With IVF emerging as another reproductive freedom issue, Michigan politicians of both parties have been working to refine their positions.

    Although the filing deadline for candidates in Michigan’s August primary election is April 23, polling already suggests that reproductive freedom will continue to be an issue. With months to go, Michigan voters who care about reproductive freedom have plenty of time to learn more.

    Volunteering Opportunites. We encourage all, particularly those living in Michigan, to support or volunteer at organizations that will assist voters in Michigan, including the following:

    [1]See, e.g., Laura Royden and Michael Li, "Extreme Maps,"https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/extreme-maps.

    [2]https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2021/03/28/how-michigans-redistricting-process-work-and-how-get-involved/4700107001/.  

    [3]  See Agee v. Benson,https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/W.D.-Mich.-22-cv-00272-dckt-000131_000-filed-2023-12-21.pdf (Dec. 21, 2023 decision).

  • March 12, 2024 12:18 PM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    A ClassACT/ Justice AID ZOOM Public Forum

    Saturday, March 16 @ 5:30pm ET

    Featuring: Moderator Joy Reid, Harvard ‘91

    Panelists Cliff Albright and LaTosha Brown

    The right to vote and participate in elections should not be a controversial issue, but it has become one. The forum will explore issues related to  this right, voter apathy, and voter suppression. It also will discuss how to engage and motivate citizens in local communities and across the country to have a voice, register and vote. Join us for this vibrant and timely discussion.

    CLICK TO REGISTER

  • March 01, 2024 5:48 PM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    Highlights Include:

    -ClassACT HR73 and JusticeAid Present: To The Ballot Box! Our Vote, Our Voice, March 16 @5:30pm ET (zoom)

    -Voter Intimidation Could Be a Threat in Arizona, by Jim Harbsion '73

    -@50 Video project: Bill Kristol '73: Preserving Liberal Democracy

    Read

  • February 15, 2024 6:32 PM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    In the video below, created by Rick Brotman '73, classmate Bill Kristol '73 discusses how the influence of his parents, along with his undergraduate experience, fueled his career and passion for politics and politicians. Having had the chance to look at the workings of our government from “ five to 30,000 feet,” he provides a steady and important view of the state of liberal democracy in our country.

    Click here to watch

  • February 14, 2024 5:43 PM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    *note that this event is in person in Cambridge, MA

    ClassACT HR73’s Benazir Bhutto Leadership Program, along with the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs (WCFIA) and the Salata Institute, both at Harvard, will host a daylong in-person Symposium focused on mitigating climate change and its concomitant social inequities through public-private partnerships. We hope you will join us for all or part of the day. Refreshments and lunch will be provided for attendees and there will be a reception at the end of the program.

    The participants include:

    • Ambassador Peter Galbraith AB ’73, Senior Diplomatic Fellow, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

    • Dustin Tingley, Professor of Government, Deputy Vice Provost, Advanced Learning, Harvard University

    • Nazmul Haque, Fellow, Benazir Bhutto Leadership Program, HKS

    • Leigh Hafrey AB ’73, Senior Lecturer, Communication and Ethics, MIT Sloan School of Management

    • Diego Osorio, MC/MPA ’09, Fellow, Weatherhead Scholars Program

    • Hélène Benveniste, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability

    • Michael Hiscox PhD ’97, Clarence Dillon Professor of International Affairs, FAS

    • James Engell AB ’73, PhD ’78, Gurney Professor of English Literature and Professor of Comparative Literature

    • Erum Sattar LLM ’10, SJD ’17, Former Program Director and Lecturer, Sustainable Water Management Program (SWM), Tufts Institute of the Environment

    • Kimball Chen AB ’73, MBA ’78, Chairman, The Global LPG Partnership

    • Peter Tufano AB ’79, MBA ’84, PhD ’89, Baker Foundation Professor, HBS

    REGISTER HERE

  • February 14, 2024 5:38 PM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

    Written by Jim Harbison '73; edited by Ryan O’Connell '73, Jacki Swearingen '73 and Marilyn Go '73

     

    Arizona Demographic Shifts 2010-2022­

    Arizona, with its rapidly diversifying population and large cohort of independent voters, has emerged once again as one of the key battleground states in the 2024 Presidential election. Outcomes in the Grand Canyon state are likely to be even more unpredictable this election cycle because of changing demographics and a surge in voter suppression tactics like intimidation at the polls.

    Until recently, Arizona has been considered solidly Republican. For many decades, Arizona has been a prime destination for retirees migrating to the Sun Belt. The late Sen. John McCain and the late Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor epitomized the sort of traditional Republicans who preferred fiscal conservatism, a strong national defense, and respect for the rule of law. Republicans further to the right like the late Sen. Barry Goldwater also found a place in their state’s GOP.

    However, Arizona has a long border with Mexico, and its Latino population has grown 16 percent from 2010 to 2020, compared to a 10.3 percent growth for the state’s non-Latinos. Latinos now make up nearly one-third of the state’s population. Although Hispanics are often conservative on cultural issues, most have a strong affinity with the Democratic Party. The growth in their percentage of the population has helped turn  Arizona into a “purplish” state. In 2019, Reuters observed that “voting patterns and results from prior elections show the longtime Republican state of Arizona increasingly balanced on a razor’s edge.”

    A Battleground State

    As both Latinos and non-Latinos move to Arizona for its climate and economic opportunities, they have created a new political dynamic where no candidate is assured of victory because of party affiliation. As of 2023, out of nearly 4.2 million registered voters in Arizona, 35% were Republicans, 34% were independents and 31% were Democrats. With such an evenly divided electorate, AZ has become a battleground state.

    Independent voters may play a particularly important role in the 2024 Senate race.  Senator  Kyrsten Sinema, the incumbent, decided in December 2022 to leave the Democratic Party, where she increasingly defied the Senate leadership on key votes and policies.  Sinema now is one of three independents in the Senate who caucus with the Democratic majority. At present she has not yet announced whether she will run for re-election as an independent, and time is growing short for her to decide. 

    If Sen. Sinema does run, she will likely face Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic Latino candidate, a Phoenix congressman, and a Harvard graduate (Class of 2004). Her Republican opponent in that general election is almost certain to be Kari Lake, an election denier who lost the 2022 Senate race to Democrat Mark Kelly.

    At present, Gallego appears to be the frontrunner for this 2024 race, although the volatility of both Arizona and national politics hampers predictions this far out. The Cook Report calls the race a toss-up at this point.

    A Hotbed of Election Deniers

    Looking at the history of election problems over the last four years, the Brennan Center notes that “Arizona was a locus of election denial and subversion efforts in both 2020 and 2022.” These sustained maneuvers included moves to appoint fake electors, threats to and harassment of local election officials, and unsuccessful legislative attempts to decertify the election. 

    Although Doug Ducey, the Republican governor at the time, accepted the 2020 election results as valid, far-right Arizona legislators still demanded two audits of the ballots cast in Maricopa, the state’s most populous county. The audits were conducted by Cyber Ninjas, a now-defunct Florida company whose methods and lack of transparency drew widespread criticism. Ironically, the audit results released finally by the Republican-led Arizona Senate showed that Joe Biden’s margin of victory was higher than initially recorded.    

    Nonetheless, Lake ran for Governor in 2022 repeating her claims that the 2020 election results were fraudulent. Lake lost to Katie Hobbs, the Democratic candidate who had certified the election results in her role as Secretary of State. Lake has continued to deny the 2020 election results in her current campaign for the Senate.

    Intimidation at Polling Sites

    In another example of the charged atmosphere in Arizona, considerable controversy arose over the actions of some private citizens who claimed to be “monitoring” polling sites during the 2022 election.  Some of the self-appointed “monitors” from a group called Clean Elections USA even wore camouflage and carried weapons when they stood near ballot drop boxes. The League of Women Voters of Arizona and other groups representing voters who claimed the monitors were primarily intent on intimidating voters brought suits in federal court. A U.S. District Court judge appointed by Donald Trump agreed, ordering the monitors to stay at least 75 feet away from ballot drop boxes and not to take photos and videos of voters.

    Election experts have expressed concern that tactics such as aggressive poll monitoring practices may resurface in 2024 to prevent voters from casting a ballot. Unfortunately, much of the infrastructure that provided a bulwark against such behavior has been weakened since the 2020 election. Many election officials, worn down by threats or harassment, have resigned or retired; 15 of 17 counties in Arizona have lost their top officials since 2020. Several of their replacements stand firmly in the camp of 2020 election deniers.  

    Native Americans’ Troubled Access to Voting

    Arizona has a substantial Native American population, which has traditionally had limited access to voting. These citizens were excluded from voting before 1948 and were required to pass literacy tests until the 1970s. Native American voters were even harassed and intimidated by polling officials as late as 2006.

    The erosion of laws to protect election practices in Arizona has compounded these problems on reservations. In the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee (2021), the Democratic National Committee sued Arizona’s Secretary of State (Brnovich). The DNC’s attorneys argued that Arizona state laws created obstacles for minority voters to cast their ballots. The Court ruled for Secretary Brnovich and significantly weakened the protections provided by Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act by making it harder to bring court challenges against discriminatory voting laws.

    As one example, Arizona banned “ballot bundling”, in which an individual would collect ballots from several Native Americans, often for a fee, and then deliver the ballots to a polling station. The Court ruled that Arizona had reasonable grounds to believe that the practice could lead to voting fraud and that abolishing the practice would not unduly inconvenience voters.

    However, as Justice Elena Kagan pointed out in her dissent, there was little voting fraud in Arizona and no evidence that ballot bundling caused any voting fraud. Furthermore, many Native Americans lived on reservations without polling stations, and they often lacked transportation to voting sites that were in many cases far away.

    Some Positive Trends

    On the positive side, there has not been a rash of anti-voting rights legislation recently, as many had feared. Support for strengthened voter protection measures in Arizona remains quite popular overall, as demonstrated in a recent Secure Democracy Foundation poll.

    There are other bright spots as well. A law passed in May 2023 allows police officers, judges, and others in sensitive positions to strike their names and addresses from the public record to ensure their safety and to shield themselves from harassment. This is a good security measure for those individuals, and hopefully the law will make it more difficult for outsiders to interfere with the smooth conduct of elections. In addition, at the end of last year Gov. Hobbs approved a new Election Protection Manual that spells out correct procedures for all of Arizona’s precincts.

    More than 90% of Arizona’s voters voted early, either at a polling place or by absentee ballot. Polls in the state show overwhelming support for absentee voting. However, much of the rhetoric on the far right has sowed the misinformation that this mechanism results in widespread voter fraud. 

    How You Can Help

    The Brennan Center warns that “Given the ongoing level of election denial in Arizona, advocacy groups must remain on alert for intimidation efforts, as they were in 2022.” If you live in Arizona, please consider volunteering as a poll monitor, so you can alert officials of any inappropriate behavior by self-appointed monitors.  

    Now is the time to get involved in Arizona. The Presidential primary will take place on March 19, and Congressional primaries will be held on August 6. There are many ways to get involved, in addition to discussing the candidates and issues with your friends and colleagues and encouraging them to vote. Voter registration drives help all citizens exercise their right to vote.

    Here is a list of non-partisan not-for-profit voting organizations for which you could volunteer or give support: 

    1) Election Protection Arizona is a coalition of frontline organizations that work with communities most subject to voter suppression.  If you are a lawyer, a paralegal, or a law school student, you can volunteer for Election Protection, which provides advice to citizens who want to register to vote or who may encounter problems when they try to vote. EP provides training and materials on each state’s election laws and procedures that enable volunteers to work digitally from home or office. If you are not a lawyer, you can volunteer with EP to help as a poll monitor.

    2) The League of Women Voters of Arizona has as its top priority this year Voting Rights/ Election Systems (Security and Integrity of Elections).

    3) Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) is deeply involved in registering voters as well as providing ongoing community-based activities, such as seeking fair wages for employees and providing English instruction. In 2022 LUCHA registered 22,000 new Latino voters.

    4) Mi Familia Vota Arizona focuses on registering and Latino voters in Arizona and educating them about the election process. The organization offers roles for volunteers in Voter Registration, Phone Banking and Text Banking.

    5) Protecting Native American Voting Rights in Arizona offers the opportunity to donate in support of efforts to fight the suppression of Native American voters. 

    Be sure to read the article in this issue of the Newsletter on reproductive rights in Arizona and the importance of the upcoming elections regarding that issue.

    And don’t forget to vote!

ClassACT HR ‘73
Classacthr73@gmail.com

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