The Balance of Power in Wisconsin Could Shift Because of Fairer New Maps

by Marilyn Go

Edited by Jim Harbison, Ryan O’Connell, Jacki Swearingen, Vivian Lewis and Debbie Winn

­

Wisconsin, a state with 10 electoral votes, has been a battleground state in recent Presidential elections.  Along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, this state makes up a trio of Rustbelt industrial states that presidential candidates from both parties have long sought to capture. This November, Wisconsin may yet again be a key step in the path to an electoral college victory.

Wisconsin voters voted for Democratic presidential candidates from 1988 until 2016, when former President Donald J. Trump unexpectedly won Wisconsin by a margin of less than 23,000 votes over Hillary Clinton, approximately 0.8% of the total vote.  In 2020, President Joe Biden eked out a win over Trump in Wisconsin by even a smaller margin. 

The importance of Wisconsin to the Republican Party's plans was underscored by the party's selection of Milwaukee as the site of the Republican National Convention which was held July 15 to 18.  (The Democratic Party had selected Milwaukee to host the 2020 Democratic National convention, but activities were primarily held online because of Covid-19 concerns).

However, the glow from a successful conclusion of the Republican Convention in Milwaukee was quickly overshadowed by President Biden’s announcement on July 21 that he would not seek re-election as President.  After declaring that she would run for President, Vice President Kamala Harris went to Milwaukee for her first campaign stop. 

Another statewide race of potential national impact is the election for one of Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seats.  Tammy Baldwin, a popular Senator who has served two terms and is seeking reelection, was unopposed in the primary election held on August 13, 2024.  In the Republican column, Eric Hovde, a multimillionaire businessman from Madison, ran a self-financed campaign with the backing of the National Republican Committee.  Hovde easily defeated State Senator Charles E. Barman, who ran as an “independent” farmer, and Rejani Raveendran, a single mother and an immigrant seeking to "bring the perspective of people and regular moms to Washington."  Current polls project that Baldwin will prevail over Hovde.

Democrats hold only two of Wisconsin’s eight Congressional seats. This is partially because Democratic voters are concentrated in the two largest cities, Milwaukee and Madison. Another critical factor is that the congressional districts suffer from extreme partisan gerrymandering. Nonetheless, in March 2023, the Wisconsin Supreme Court deadlocked 3-3 in declining to hear a challenge to Congressional maps drawn in 2022. Nonetheless, two GOP Representatives may face competitive races in November, and Democrats are hopeful that the newly competitive local races may boost turnout for in other races. 

State Legislature: Wisconsin has been one of the most gerrymandered states in the country for many years and Republicans have held near super-majorities in the Assembly and Senate, despite the "purple hue" of the electorate.  Wisconsin has been described as a “democracy desert,”[1] and observers feared that “[a]nti-democratic politicians supported by safe seats and polarization have walked through and begun enacting an authoritarian playbook.” Kleinfeld, Rachel, “Five Strategies to Support U.S. Democracy.”

However, when Janet Protasiewicz was elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court in a special election in April 2023, the majority on the Court shifted from conservative to liberal. With Justice Protasiewicz siding with the three other liberal judges when she took the bench, the Court agreed to hear a lawsuit brought by Democrats challenging the 2022 state redistricting maps adopted by the Republicans legislature as extreme partisan gerrymandering. In December 2023, the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down the maps, finding that the maps violated the requirement in Wisconsin’s Constitution that districts must be contiguous. The Court did not reach the gerrymandering arguments raised, even though the experts retained by the Supreme Court to review the maps noted that the Republican-drawn maps were gerrymanders which "did not deserve further consideration.” See the Court Report of the Court-appointed Co-consultants in Clarke V. Wisconsin Elections Commission by Dr. Bernard Grofman and Dr. Jonathan Cervas.  

In February 2024, the Republican-dominated state legislature and Democratic Governor Tony Evers reached a bipartisan agreement for the first time in 50 years on new redistricting legislative maps. These maps are expected to make many Assembly and Senate races far more competitive this fall. Even though the Supreme Court’s consultants noted that the maps are “tilted toward the Republicans,” in their view the maps are sufficiently competitive that “the party that wins the most votes will win the most seats.” (citing Report above).  As commentators have noted, the new maps “could substantially shift the balance of political power in Wisconsin.” 

Perhaps spurred by the new maps, Democratic candidates are running for 97 of 99 Assembly seats, in contrast to past elections where several Republican candidates ran unopposed. Republicans currently hold 64 Assembly seats. However, since many districts were redrawn substantially, many incumbents may face contests in very different districts, which will add to the unpredictability of election outcomes.

In the state Senate, the Republicans currently hold 22 out of 31 seats. Because only the seats in even-numbered districts are up for election in November, the Democrats are not likely to win enough races to expand their nine seats into a majority.

In recent litigation of note, Dane County Circuit Judge Evert Mitchell ruled that disabled voters who cannot cast paper ballots without assistance could email absentee ballots from their homes for the November presidential election. On August 1, Judge Mitchell denied a request to stay his ruling pending an appeal by Republicans. This litigation highlights the additional obstacles to voting that disabled people in Wisconsin face in exercising their right to vote.

Demographics: Wisconsin has had steady growth in population and currently has over 5.9 million people, making it the 20th most populous state. The state’s population is predominantly white, although the percentage has declined from 92% in 1990 to about 80% in 2024. Of the remaining population, the 2020 Census indicated that 8.1 % is Hispanic or Latino, 6.6% is Black or African American, and 3.3 % Asian, with the remainder categorized as “other” or “two or more races.” In the remaining group, 1.2 % are Native Americans.

About 70% of Wisconsin’s citizens reside in the major urban areas such as Milwaukee (over 600,000) and Madison (about 150,000).  The remaining 30% of the  people reside primarily in rural, agrarian areas (see article from UW Applied Population Laboratory discussing the nuances of the urban/rural dichotomy in Wisconsin). Milwaukee has a substantial Black population, and Madison, a university town, has a large student population.  

Marquette University Law School has periodically issued results of polls it has taken of Wisconsin voters on their preferences in the upcoming presidential election.  The report that Marquette released on August 7 shows the presidential race in a dead heat, with Wisconsin voters preferring Trump over Harris by 1% (50% to 49%) and the percentages reversed among likely voters.  The Washington Post reported also on August 7 that based on its average of Wisconsin polls that Harris has a less than 1% lead.  Most other polls as of that date show Harris with a very small lead around 1%. 

The polls were taken before the announcement by Harris of her selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to run as Vice President. Also, most polls focus on head-to-head matches between Harris and Trump, but there will also be a number of third party candidates which could affect polling, as well as outcomes [2]. Already on the ballot are Jill Stein (Green Party) and Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party). As of the drafting of this article, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. had filed to be added to the ballot, too. Suffice to say, poll numbers have been changing and will continue to change until the election.

Reproductive Health: Abortion is also a matter of concern to Wisconsin voters, as reflected in the election of Justice Protasiewicz to the Wisconsin Supreme Court discussed above.  See New York Times article here (noting that Justice Protasiewicz’s “commanding victory … showed the enduring power of abortion rights and issues of democracy as motivators for Democratic voters”).  Immediately following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022 by the U.S. Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Org., all abortions in Wisconsin ceased because of application of an archaic pre-Civil War statute.  In a lawsuit brought by Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin to halt prosecutions under that statute, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Diane Schlipper ruled that the state statute banned feticide, but not abortions performed with a woman’s consent.  As a result, abortions are again being performed, but subject to the many pre-Dobbs restrictions existing in Wisconsin, including a 20-week ban after contraception, a mandatory waiting period, and counseling requirements.  Judge Schlipper’s decision was appealed directly to the Wisconsin Supreme Court and is currently pending, together with the following case.  

In February 2024, Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin filed a petition to the Wisconsin Supreme Court challenging the statute raised before Judge Schlipper and arguing that the statute violates the Wisconsin state constitution and a woman’s right to an abortion. In June, the Supreme Court issued an order indicating an oral argument would be held this fall.  Whether the ruling occurs in time to affect the outcome of the November elections remains to be seen.  Incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin is an outspoken supporter of reproductive freedom who sponsored the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2023 to restore the right to comprehensive reproductive services nationally.  Her opponent, Republican Eric Hovde, is running for the second time.  Although Hovde supported the overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2012, he changed his view and now says he supports permitting pregnancy termination in the first 12-14 weeks.

Referendum questions: There were two referendum questions [3] on the August 13 primary election ballot to amend the Wisconsin Constitution to give the legislature authority for distribution of funds and require the governor to obtain legislative approval (see here).  The referendum was proposed by the Republican controlled legislature as a way to diminish the power of the Governor, who is Democratic, and increase its own power (see here).  The voters answered “Yes” to both referenda questions.”No” to both referenda questions.“Yes” “No” to Question 1 and “Yes”/”No” Question 2.“Yes” “No” to Question 1 and “Yes”/”No” Question 2.  

What You Can Do.  Most importantly, you should be sure that you are registered to vote and that you vote on November 5.  You should also encourage people you know to do so.  The vote in Wisconsin could be critical in determining who will be President, and  the election of one of its Senators in November might determine which political party controls the U.S. Senate.  If you have not registered to vote, the deadline for registering online or by mail is October 16, 2024. 

However, you can also register in person on election day, November 5, 2024, provided you bring both a Wisconsin approved Proof of Residency and a Wisconsin approved Photo ID.  Early voting for this election begins on Tuesday, October 22, and runs through Sunday, November 3.  You can also vote by absentee ballot and use absentee-ballot-drop boxes, which the Wisconsin Supreme Court allowed in a 4-3 ruling in early July.  Information regarding registering to vote, absentee ballots, and identification requirements for voting in person is available on the website of the State of Wisconsin Elections Commission.   

You can also work to increase voter turnout by working with Wisconsin voting rights organizations, including the following:

·  All Voting is Local Wisconsin works with key partners, including county clerks across the state and state and local groups, to ensure that elections are run fairly and smoothly.

·  Common Cause Wisconsin focuses on election and redistricting reform, as well as other issues concerning the promotion of clean, open, and responsive government.

·  Souls to the Polls Wisconsin is a non-partisan voter education and advocacy faith-led organization seeking to strengthen the Black Community by providing voting information and free rides to the polls for Milwaukee voters.

·  Wisconsin Conservation Voices runs Wisconsin Native Vote, which registers, educates, and engages voters in tribal communities.

·  Wisconsin Disability Vote Coalition is a non-partisan organization working to increase voting turnout and participation among members of Wisconsin’s disability community.   

[1]Journalist David Daley coined the term “democracy desert” in describing the extreme gerrymandering in Wisconsin which effectively deprived voters of the power to effect political change.  See here.   

[2]  See Gibson, Brittany, et al., “Where third-party candidates could spoil 2024,” (6/25/2024, updated 8/13/2024)  (noting that in 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by just over 20,000 votes, which was fewer that the number of votes that the Libertarian Party candidate received in that election).

[3] The referendum questions are written as follows:

QUESTION 1: “Delegation of appropriation power. Shall section 35 (1) of article IV of the constitution be created to provide that the legislature may not delegate its sole power to determine how moneys shall be appropriated?”

QUESTION 2: “Allocation of federal moneys. Shall section 35 (2) of article IV of the constitution be created to prohibit the governor from allocating any federal moneys the governor accepts on behalf of the state without the approval of the legislature by joint resolution or as provided by legislative rule?”