Written by Jim Harbison '73; edited by Ryan O’Connell '73, Jacki Swearingen '73 and Marilyn Go '73

 

Arizona Demographic Shifts 2010-2022­

Arizona, with its rapidly diversifying population and large cohort of independent voters, has emerged once again as one of the key battleground states in the 2024 Presidential election. Outcomes in the Grand Canyon state are likely to be even more unpredictable this election cycle because of changing demographics and a surge in voter suppression tactics like intimidation at the polls.

Until recently, Arizona has been considered solidly Republican. For many decades, Arizona has been a prime destination for retirees migrating to the Sun Belt. The late Sen. John McCain and the late Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor epitomized the sort of traditional Republicans who preferred fiscal conservatism, a strong national defense, and respect for the rule of law. Republicans further to the right like the late Sen. Barry Goldwater also found a place in their state’s GOP.

However, Arizona has a long border with Mexico, and its Latino population has grown 16 percent from 2010 to 2020, compared to a 10.3 percent growth for the state’s non-Latinos. Latinos now make up nearly one-third of the state’s population. Although Hispanics are often conservative on cultural issues, most have a strong affinity with the Democratic Party. The growth in their percentage of the population has helped turn Arizona into a “purplish” state. In 2019, Reuters observed that “voting patterns and results from prior elections show the longtime Republican state of Arizona increasingly balanced on a razor’s edge.”

A Battleground State

As both Latinos and non-Latinos move to Arizona for its climate and economic opportunities, they have created a new political dynamic where no candidate is assured of victory because of party affiliation. As of 2023, out of nearly 4.2 million registered voters in Arizona, 35% were Republicans, 34% were independents and 31% were Democrats. With such an evenly divided electorate, AZ has become a battleground state.

Independent voters may play a particularly important role in the 2024 Senate race.  Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema decided in December 2022 to leave the Democratic Party, where she increasingly defied the Senate leadership on key votes and policies.  Sinema now is one of three independents in the Senate who caucus with the Democratic majority.

Sinema has decided not to run for re-election in 2024, with the primary occurring July 30.  The favored candidates at this point are the Latino Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Phoenix congressman and Harvard graduate (Class of 2004), and Republican Kari Lake, an election denier who lost the 2022 Senate race to Democrat Mark Kelly.  The Cook Report calls the race a toss-up.

A Hotbed of Election Deniers

Looking at the history of election problems over the last four years, the Brennan Center notes that “Arizona was a locus of election denial and subversion efforts in both 2020 and 2022.” These sustained maneuvers included moves to appoint fake electors, threats to and harassment of local election officials, and unsuccessful legislative attempts to decertify the election. 

Although Doug Ducey, the Republican governor at the time, accepted the 2020 election results as valid, far-right Arizona legislators still demanded two audits of the ballots cast in Maricopa, the state’s most populous county. The audits were conducted by Cyber Ninjas, a now-defunct Florida company whose methods and lack of transparency drew widespread criticism. Ironically, the audit results finally released by the Republican-led Arizona Senate showed that Joe Biden’s margin of victory was higher than initially recorded.    

Nonetheless, Lake ran for Governor in 2022 repeating her claims that the 2020 election results were fraudulent. Lake lost to Katie Hobbs, the Democratic candidate who had certified the election results in her role as Secretary of State. Lake has continued to deny the 2020 election results in her current campaign for the Senate.

Intimidation at Polling Sites

In another example of the charged atmosphere in Arizona, considerable controversy arose over the actions of some private citizens who claimed to be “monitoring” polling sites during the 2022 election.  Some of the self-appointed “monitors” from a group called Clean Elections USA even wore camouflage and carried weapons when they stood near ballot drop boxes. The League of Women Voters of Arizona and other groups representing voters who claimed the “monitors” were primarily intent on intimidating voters brought suits in federal court.  A U.S. District Court judge appointed by Donald Trump agreed, ordering the “monitors” to stay at least 75 feet away from ballot drop boxes and not to take photos and videos of voters.

Election experts have expressed concern that tactics such as aggressive poll monitoring practices may resurface in 2024 to prevent voters from casting a ballot. Unfortunately, much of the infrastructure that provided a bulwark in Arizona against such behavior has been weakened since the 2020 election. Many election officials, worn down by threats or harassment, have resigned or retired; 15 of 17 counties in Arizona have lost their top officials since 2020. Several of their replacements stand firmly in the camp of 2020 election deniers.  A recent article in the Hill is headlined “Arizona becomes ground zero for 2024 election misinformation fears”.  

Troubling Ballot Initiatives

There is an unusually large number of ballot measures, including some which are proposed amendments to the Arizona Constitution, on the November ballot in Arizona, and a number relate to the voting process.  Six, initiated by the legislature, are already scheduled to be on the ballot, with dozens more in the offering.  You can see an entire listing here.  There are two of particular interest. 

The first limits the voting process to party-only primaries which means that any attempts to break the tight hold of parties to control the process cannot proceed.  This would preclude any future use of Rank Choice Voting (RCV) now used in 28 States in at least one jurisdiction, or any primary election process like that currently used in California in which all candidates for state offices are listed on the same ballot and all candidates are listed with their party affiliation.

In Rank Choice Voting the top two candidates who get the most votes in the open primary race move on to the General Election regardless of their party. You can read more about it here and here.  Such measures tend to increase the likelihood of more moderate candidates in the middle of the political spectrum being elected, a worthy goal given the highly partisan impasse we see in Washington.

The second would toughen the requirements to get an initiative on a ballot by requiring, inter alia, that the current signature threshold percentage statewide (10% for a state statute measure or 15% for a constitutional amendment measure) to be met in the future in each of Arizona’s fifteen counties.

In addition, there are other restrictive measures in the list of potential initiatives including changing the voter approval percentage required to pass constitutional amendments from 50%  to 60%, similar to a similar ballot initiative in Ohio which gained a lot of press attention when it was defeated last August.  Another potential ballot measure proposes to remove the use of voting centers and early voting locations.

On the other hand, there is also a potential measure to amend the state constitution to establish the right to an abortion.  Getting it on the ballot requires 383,923 signatures (15% of the electorate) by July 3, 2024, and a signature drive for that is currently underway.

Native Americans’ Troubled Access to Voting

Arizona has a substantial Native American population, which has historically had limited access to voting. These citizens were excluded from voting before 1948 and were required to pass literacy tests until the 1970s. Native American voters were even harassed and intimidated by polling officials as late as 2006.

The erosion of laws to protect election practices in Arizona has compounded these problems on reservations. In the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee (2021), the Democratic National Committee sued Arizona’s Secretary of State (Brnovich). The DNC’s attorneys argued that Arizona state laws created obstacles for minority voters to cast their ballots. The Court ruled for Secretary Brnovich and significantly weakened the protections provided by Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act by making it harder to bring court challenges against discriminatory voting laws.

As one example, Arizona banned “ballot bundling”, in which an individual would collect ballots from several Native Americans, often for a fee, and then deliver the ballots to a polling station. The Court ruled that Arizona had reasonable grounds to believe that the practice could lead to voting fraud and that abolishing the practice would not unduly inconvenience voters.

However, as Justice Elena Kagan pointed out in her dissent, there was little voting fraud in Arizona and no evidence that ballot bundling caused any voting fraud. Furthermore, many Native Americans live on reservations without polling stations, and they often lacked transportation to voting sites that were in many cases far away.

Some Positive Trends

On the positive side, there has not been a rash of anti-voting rights legislation recently, as many had feared. Support for strengthened voter protection measures in Arizona remains quite popular overall, as demonstrated in a recent Secure Democracy Foundation poll.

There are other bright spots as well. A law passed in May 2023 allows police officers, judges, and others in sensitive positions to strike their names and addresses from the public record to ensure their safety and to shield themselves from harassment. This is a good security measure for those individuals, and hopefully the law will make it more difficult for outsiders to interfere with the smooth conduct of elections. In addition, at the end of last year, Gov. Hobbs approved a new Election Protection Manual that spells out correct procedures for all of Arizona’s precincts.

More than 90% of Arizona’s voters voted early, either at a polling place or by absentee ballot. Polls in the state show overwhelming support for absentee voting. However, much of the rhetoric on the far right has sowed the misinformation that this mechanism results in widespread voter fraud. 

How You Can Help

The Brennan Center warns that “Given the ongoing level of election denial in Arizona, advocacy groups must remain on alert for intimidation efforts, as they were in 2022.” If you live in Arizona, please consider volunteering as a poll monitor, so you can alert officials of any inappropriate behavior by self-appointed monitors.  

Now is the time to get involved in Arizona. Congressional and State primaries will be held on July 30. There are many ways to get involved including discussing the candidates and issues with your friends and colleagues and encouraging them to vote. Voter registration drives help all citizens exercise their right to vote.  And you would provide a useful function if you “help friends and neighbors from falling down the ‘rabbit hole of misinformation’” as the Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation recommend.

Here is a list of non-partisan not-for-profit voting organizations for which you could volunteer or give support: 

1) Election Protection Arizona is a coalition of frontline organizations that work with communities most subject to voter suppression.  If you are a lawyer, a paralegal, or a law school student, you can volunteer for Election Protection, which provides advice to citizens who want to register to vote or who may encounter problems when they try to vote. EP provides training and materials on each state’s election laws and procedures that enable volunteers to work digitally from home or office. If you are not a lawyer, you can volunteer with EP to help as a poll monitor.

2) The League of Women Voters of Arizona has as its top priority this year Voting Rights/ Election Systems (Security and Integrity of Elections).

3) Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) is deeply involved in registering voters as well as providing ongoing community-based activities, such as seeking fair wages for employees and providing English instruction. In 2022 LUCHA registered 22,000 new Latino voters.

4) Mi Familia Vota Arizona focuses on registering Latino voters in Arizona and educating them about the election process. The organization offers roles for volunteers in Voter Registration, Phone Banking and Text Banking.

5) Protecting Native American Voting Rights in Arizona offers the opportunity to donate in support of efforts to fight the suppression of Native American voters. 

And make sure you are registered to vote in the Primaries July 30 and the General Election November 5!